The median inflation forecasted by Brazilian consumers for the following 12 months decreased by 0.3 pp in March, to 11.1% from 11.4% in February. This was the first fall in the indicator after 13 months of consecutive increases. The level of inflation projected by consumers is the third highest since 2005. “Despite the slight slowdown in consumer inflation expectations, the level remains high in historical terms, around 11%. The projections made by consumers may have been influenced by observing the current inflation developments, with deceleration of increases in the Housing group items, the price of gasoline and fixed telephony and internet services, associated with a possible slowdown in administered prices for 2016”, said Viviane Seda Bittencourt, economist at FGV/IBRE.
Consumer Inflation Expectation (Median, in %)
Source: FGV/IBRE
Consumer Inflation Expectation Índice Geral de Preços – IGP-M
Inflation expectations for the next 12 months (in %) (By income ranges) February/2016
March/2016
Up to R$ 2,100.00
12.0%
11.7%
Between R$ 2,100.01 and R$ 4,800.00
11.4%
11.2%
Between R$ 4,800.01 and R$ 9,600.00
11.3%
10.9%
Above R$ 9,600.00
11.0%
10.6%
Income range
Fonte: FGV/IBRE
The slowdown in inflation expectations among income classes was spread evenly in March, which kept the differential of inflation levels predicted in February. The lowest income group remains forecasting the highest inflation for the next 12 months: 11.7%. The range between 10.0% and 12.0% remains the most cited by consumers, but there was reduced frequency of citations in this range, to 31.3% in March from 33.7% in February. Distribution of inflation forecasted by consumers for the following 12 months (Frequency of mostly mentioned numbers per interval, in %) Frequency of responses
Inflation forecasted by Consumers (in %)
oct/15
nov/15
dec/15
jan/15
feb/15
mar/15
[0 - 4.5]
0.9%
0.6%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
0.8%
[4.5 - 5.5]
1.0%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
[5.5 - 6.5]
1.9%
1.6%
0.7%
1.7%
1.6%
2.0%
[6.5 - 7]
3.0%
1.6%
1.6%
2.8%
2.9%
3.0%
[7 - 8]
6.6%
5.1%
4.0%
7.2%
7.3%
8.2%
[8 - 9]
11.1%
8.2%
6.5%
4.9%
6.3%
7.1%
[9 - 10]
39.2%
38.4%
28.9%
20.9%
19.8%
21.7%
[10 - 12]
20.4%
26.6%
35.5%
38.0%
33.7%
31.3%
Over 12
16.0%
17.0%
21.3%
23.2%
26.5%
25.0%
Fonte: FGV/IBRE
2
Consumer Inflation Expectation Índice Geral de Preços – IGP-M
Quantitative Inflation Expectation by Consumers for the following 12 months (%) Series
Median
feb/15
7.9%
mar/15
8.4%
apr/15
8.8%
may/15
8.9%
jun/15
9.2%
jul/15
9.7%
aug/15
10.0%
sep/15
10.0%
oct/15
10.0%
nov/15
10.1%
dec/15
11.0%
jan/16
11.3%
feb/16
11.3%
Mar/16
11.1%
Source: FGV/IBRE
3
Consumer Inflation Expectation Índice Geral de Preços – IGP-M
METHODOLOGICAL NOTE FGV's Consumer Survey collects information from over 2,100 Brazilians on a monthly basis, from seven of the main state capitals (Porto Alegre, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, Brasília and Recife). Approximately ¾ of interviewees have been responding to the topics related to inflation expectation. The quantitative question is as follows: In your opinion, what will be the Brazilian inflation rate in the following 12 months? _______% Answers are totally free and no numbers are suggested to the interviewees. The quantitative question's results released in this report are obtained in two stages, as follows: i) ii)
Aggregation, without weighing, of individual responses in each one of the 28 aggregation levels (4 income levels and 7 state capitals); Aggregation of different geographical and income levels according to weights determined by consumption.
The collection of Consumer Expectations Survey is, on average, made in the first three weeks of every month. In the release of February 2016 it was made between the 1st and the 22nd. Median inflation forecasted by Consumers for the following 12 months is released on a monthly basis only in its original version, without seasonal adjustment, considering that the influence of corresponding period of the year has not been statistically perceived in historical results. For further methodological information, please refer to the Methodological Note at www.portalibre.fgv.br
CONSUMER SURVEY Monthly Publication by FGV/IBRE – Brazilian Institute of Economics IBRE’s Director: Luiz Guilherme Schymura de Oliveira Vice-Director: Vagner Laerte Ardeo Assistant Superintendence of Economic Cycles: Aloisio Campelo Jr. Survey Coordinator: Viviane Seda Bittencourt Releaser: Pedro Costa Ferreira Technical Team: Vitor Vidal Velho, Tainá Cardoso de Lima da Costa Rêgo and Renan Montez Camacho (trainee) Press services: Luciana Parreiras +55 21 3799-6384 / e-mail:
[email protected] IBRE’s Central Service: +55 21 3799-6799 / e-mail:
[email protected] / portalibre.fgv.br 4
