PORTUGAL: THE WAY FORWARD
December 7, 2017
Executive summary Portugal has turned the corner from the European crisis, with economic rebalancing and structural reforms underpinning the recovery 5
Boom
Slump
Crisis
Balanced Growth
Outline
18
1. Economic revitalization, fuelled by real GDP growth and employment creation
-5
10
-10
-15
6
2 1995
1998
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 Current account balance (LHS) Primary balance (LHS) Primary balance, excl BES/Banif resolutions (LHS) Unemployment rate (RHS)
% labour force
14
EC forecasts
% GDP
0
2. External rebalancing, through strong exports performance and external deleveraging 3. Private sector turnaround, resulting from improved profitability and balance sheet strengthening 4. Fiscal stabilization, with sizable fiscal adjustments and primary surplus achieved 5. Resilient public debt structure, enhancing shockabsorptive capacities
Source: EC, IGCP
2
Outline
1.
1.
1. Economic revitalization 2. External rebalancing
3. Private sector turnaround 4. Fiscal stabilization
5. Resilient public debt structure
3
1. Economic revitalization
Economic revitalization in evidence, underpinned by structural reforms Growth picked up since the 2nd half of 2016
Unemployment back to pre-crisis level
[Real GDP, YoY %]
[% labor force]
6%
27%
4%
24% 3.1% 2.5% 1.8%
Portugal
2%
21% 18%
Portugal
0%
16.8%
15% -2% 12% 11.1%
-4% 9%
8.9% 8.8%
-6% 6% -8%
3%
Euro area
Italy
Portugal
Spain Source: Eurostat
Euro Area
Portugal
Spain
Italy Source: Eurostat
4
1. Economic revitalization
Stronger foundations for GDP growth (1/2) Sustainable domestic and external demand
Improved confidence behind private consumption
[GDP YoY % and pp]
[Private consumption and Consumer confidence] YoY %
10
5
Index
6
3
4
-6
2
-15
0
-24
-2
-33
-4
-42
-6
-51
-8
-60
2.5 0
-5
-10
-15
Private consumption GFCF Exports GDP
Public consumption Change in inventories Imports
Private consumption (YoY %, LHS) Consumer confidence (index, RHS)
Source: Statistics Portugal
Source: Statistics Portugal
5
1. Economic revitalization
Stronger foundations for GDP growth (2/2) Robust exports growth …
… supported by a shift in investment pattern
[Contributions to YoY real Exports growth, %]
[Contributions to YoY real GFCF growth, %]
15
16 12
10
8 5
4 0
0
-4
-5
-8 -10
-12 -16
-15
-20 -20
-24
Exports of services Exports of mineral products Exports of goods excluding mineral products Exports of goods and services Source: Statistics Portugal
Others
Construction
Transport equipment
Other machinery and equipment
Gross fixed capital formation Source: Statistics Portugal
6
1. Economic revitalization
Labor market supported by growth and reforms Both employment and participation rates up
Job creation in more productive sectors
[% of total population]
[Contributions to YoY employment growth, %]
75.0
[% of total population] 62
6
Participation Rate (LHS) 74.5
Employment rate (RHS)
61 60
4
2
74.0 59 0 73.5
58 -2 57
73.0 56
-4
72.5 55 72.0
54
Source: Statistics Portugal
-6 2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
2016Q1
2017Q1
Services Mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and construction Agriculture, forestry and fishing yoy Source: Statistics Portugal
7
1. Economic revitalization
Structural reforms have been key to sustain a balanced growth environment
What has been achieved: Labor market • Reduced severance payments and unemployment benefits • More flexible working arrangements
Product market • Reduced firms’ administrative burden (e.g. licensing) • Lower costs of context (e.g. communications, railways, ports) • Rental market reform
Public sector • Social Security reform • Improved effectiveness: reduction of civil servants (-10% since 2011) and SOEs restructuring • Simplified tax compliance + reduced fraud and fiscal evasion • New Budgetary Framework Law • Privatization program • Judicial system reform
Financial sector • Improved efficiency of credit allocation by banks • Resolution Fund: State loan extended for up to 30y, with maturity contingent on final outstanding amount (after NB sale)
Underway: Corporate sector • Program Capitalizar: promote reduction of indebtedness levels and increase capital holdings • Initiative Indústria 4.0: designed to revitalize most traditional sectors (agroindustry, auto, fashion, retail and tourism) • Program Semente: new fiscal framework to promote Start Up investment
Public sector • Program Simplex+: improve efficient use of public resources and simplify administrative burden • Spending review focused on: (i) health and education sectors; (ii) procurement; (iii) real estate; and (iv) SOEs • Automatic income declaration for Personal Income Tax
Financial sector • NPLs: working group preparing measures to facilitate debt restructuring, including fiscal treatment of write-offs • Improve efficiency of insolvency and debt restructuring frameworks
8
1. Economic revitalization
Converging expectations around accelerating growth Portugal exceeded expectations in early 2017, which prompted a significant upward revision of growth forecasts
Macroeconomic Scenario INE Min Fin: 2018 State Statistics Portugal Budget Report October 2017
Real GDP (yoy%) (previous forecasts) Private Consumption Public Consumption GFCF Exports Imports Contributions to GDP growth (pp) Domestic demand Net exports External sector (% GDP) Current account of which Goods and Services Current and Capital account Unemployment (% labor force) Prices (yoy%) GDP deflator HICP
2015 1.8
2016 1.5
2.3 1.3 5.8 6.1 8.5
Banco de Portugal October 2017 June 2017
Portuguese Public Financial Council September 2017
International Monetary Fund
European Commission
October 2017
November 2017
2.1 0.6 1.6 4.1 4.1
2017P 2.6 1.8 2.2 -0.2 7.7 8.3 8.0
2018P 2.2 1.9 1.9 -0.6 5.9 5.4 5.2
2017P 2.5 (2.5) 1.9 0.3 8.0 7.1 6.9
2018P 2.0 (1.7) 1.7 0.6 5.3 6.8 6.9
2017P 2.7 (1.7) 2.2 0.7 9.1 7.9 7.6
2018P 2.1 (1.7) 2.1 0.0 5.2 4.0 4.1
2017P 2.5 (1.7) 2.2 0.6 6.9 7.6 7.3
2018P 2.0 (1.5) 1.8 0.5 5.7 5.2 5.1
2017P 2.6 1.8 1.9 0.4 8.1 8.0 8.0
2018P 2.1 1.6 1.6 0.5 5.3 7.3 7.2
2.8 -1.1
1.6 -0.1
2.7 -0.1
2.2 0.0
2.5 0.0
2.2 -0.2
2.8 0.0
2.3 -0.1
2.6 -0.1
2.2 -0.1
2.6 0.0
2.0 0.0
-0.9 0.6 0.3 12.4
0.1 0.9 1.0 11.1
-0.1 0.9 0.8 9.2
0.1 1.0 1.0 8.6
1.7 1.8 9.0
2.2 2.4 8.2
0.3 0.9 1.3 9.2
0.3 0.7 1.3 8.5
0.4 9.7
0.3 9.0
0.1 1.0 9.2
0.2 1.1 8.3
2.0 0.5
1.4 0.6
1.3 1.2
1.4 1.4
1.6
1.4
1.3 1.6
1.8 1.9
2.2 1.6
1.7 2.0
1.3 1.5
1.4 1.4
-
Sources: Statistics Portugal, Ministry of Finance, Banco de Portugal, Public Finance Council, International Monetary Fund, and European Commission
9
Outline
2.
1. Economic revitalization 2. External rebalancing
3. Private sector turnaround 4. Fiscal stabilization
5. Resilient public debt structure
10
2. External rebalancing
Large imbalances have been successfully addressed, paving the way for sustainable growth From chronic external deficits to sustained surpluses
Significant gains in exports market share
[% GDP]
[Index 1Q2007=100]
2
44
0
130
40
Portugal
120 -2 36 -4
110 32
-6 28
100
-8 24
-10
20
Source: Statistics Portugal
Portugal
Germany
Spain
2017Q2
2016Q2
2015Q2
2014Q2
2013Q2
2012Q2
2011Q2
2010Q2
2009Q2
2008Q2
Imports of goods and services (rhs) Exports of goods and services (rhs) External balance of goods and services
80 2007Q2
1996Q2 1997Q2 1998Q2 1999Q2 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2 2006Q2 2007Q2 2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q2 2015Q2 2016Q2 2017Q2
-12
90
Italy Source: Eurostat
11
2. External rebalancing
Exports diversification improves resilience to external shocks Broader sectoral diversification
Geographical diversification sustaining exports growth
[Goods exports by sector, %]
[Goods exports by destination, YoY 3mMA %] 20
19 14 1212 9
12 11
25 20 15
6
4
443
3
6
5
33
44
55
4
10
2000
2010
Elec. and Mec. Machinery
Vehicles and parts, Aircraft
Textile Products
Pulp of Wood and Paper
Footware and other products
Wood and Cork
Cement, Ceramic and Glass
Mineral Products
Fish, Fruits, Veg.,Tobaco and Wine
Base Metals
Plastics and Rubber
5
Chemicals (incl. Pharma.)
4
7
56
8
88 7
8
1010
1515
30
2016 Source: Statistics Portugal
0 -5 -10
Germany
Spain
France
UK
Others Intra-EU
US
Africa
Others Extra-EU
Exports
Source: Statistics Portugal
12
2. External rebalancing
Sustained productivity gains leading to higher competitiveness Labor productivity: ongoing improvement
ULC: down from a relatively modest competitive position
[2001 = 100]
[2001 Q1 = 100; 12m MA]
115
Portugal
150
140
110
130 105 120 100
Portugal
110
95
100
90
90
Euro area (19 countries)
Spain
Italy
Portugal Source: Eurostat
Spain
Italy
Portugal
Euro Area Source: Eurostat
13
2. External rebalancing
Improving net external debt position Reversed historical net borrower position …
… leading to improvement in NIIP
[Current & capital account, % GDP: 4QMA]
[Net International Investment Position, % GDP] 0
4 2.6 2.1 1.9
2 0
-13.5
-20
-40
-2 -60 -4 -80
-86.5
Portugal
-6
-100
-8
-103.9 Portugal
-10
-18.2pp
-120 -122.1
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Spain Source: Eurostat
Italy
Mar-17
Mar-16
Mar-15
Mar-14
Mar-13
Mar-12
Mar-11
Mar-10
Mar-09
Mar-08
Mar-07
Mar-06
Mar-05
Mar-04
Mar-03
Mar-02
-140 Mar-01
Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Sep-03 Jun-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Jun-16 Mar-17
-12
Portugal Source: Eurostat
14
Outline
1.
1.
3.
1. Economic revitalization 2. External rebalancing
3. Private sector turnaround 4. Fiscal stabilization
5. Resilient public debt structure
15
3. Private sector turnaround
Private sector turnaround, resulting from improved profitability and balance sheet strengthening Consistent net lending positions…
… leading to private sector deleveraging
[Net lending (+)/ Net borrowing (-) in % of GDP]
[Private sector debt/GDP]
6
270%
-54.6pp
4 255% Portugal
2
240% 0 225%
-2
Lowest since 2005Q1
-4 -6 -8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017Q1
215.1%
210%
201.1%
195%
180%
2017Q2
-10
165% -12 Non financial corporations
Financial corporations
Households Portugal Source: Statistics Portugal
Euro area Source: ECB
16
3. Private sector turnaround
Households net financial position improving Net worth is now above pre-crisis levels …
… driven by deleveraging
[EUR billion]
[Debt/GDP; Non-consolidated; Nominal values] 140%
800
130% 650 568
551
120% Portugal
500
110%
350
100%
102.6% 101.8%
200
90%
94.2% 90.6% 84.4%
80%
50
70% -100 -184
-250
-160
61.2%
60% 50%
Total financial assets
Total non-financial assets
Germany
Spain
France
Total liabilities
Total net worth
Euro Area
Portugal
Italy
Source: Banco de Portugal
Source: ECB
17
3. Private sector turnaround
Strengthening of corporates’ capital structure ... Strong decline of debt stock
Improved solvency position
[Debt/GDP; Non-consolidated]
[Capital ratio = Equity/Assets] 36%
150% Portugal
140%
133.6%
130%
35%
120% 110%
112.4% 106.9%
100%
100.1%
34%
33%
90% 80%
79.4% 32%
70% 62.0%
60%
31%
50%
30% Portugal
Spain
France
Italy
Euro Area
Germany Source: ECB
Source: Banco de Portugal
18
3. Private sector turnaround
… combined with improved profitability has paved the way for investment NFC profitability levels are being restored …
… which bodes well for investment growth
[NI/Equity and EBITDA/Assets]
[GVA and GFCF, YoY %]
14%
3%
15%
2%
10%
1%
5%
0%
0%
-1%
-5%
-2%
-10%
-3%
-15%
-4%
-20%
12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
Gross value added (YoY %, LHS) Return on equity
EBITDA/Assets Source: Banco de Portugal
Gross fixed capital formation (YoY %, RHS) Source: Statistics Portugal
19
3. Private sector turnaround
Banks dealing with legacy assets NPL ratio is receding…
… and overdue credit is declining sharply
[% of gross credit; at end of period]
[YoY %]
27.5%
29.0%
29.4%
30.1%
30.3%
29.6%
28.6%
65% 55% 45%
17.5%
17.9%
17.9%
17.6%
17.2%
35%
16.7% 15.5%
9.6% 6.5%
6.7%
7.0%
10.0%
10.7%
11.3% 7.1%
11.3% 7.2%
7.4%
7.2%
15%
12.4%
12.5%
25%
5% -5% -15%
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
NPLs - Consumption
NPLs - Non-financial corporations
NPLs - Total Source: Banco de Portugal
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17
-25%
NPLs - Housing
Source: Banco de Portugal
20
3. Private sector turnaround
A three pillar strategy is being followed by the Authorities to deal with NPLs
Legal and judicial reform
Prudential supervisory action
Legislative changes to facilitate the restructuring of economically viable firms and the expedite insolvency and liquidation procedures of non-viable ones, capable of reimbursing creditors sooner and maximizing the value recovered by banks.
Shall play a key role in this process, within the SSM context, through the monitoring of granular information of NPL exposures, submission of NPL reduction plans by banks, as well as measures to encourage the reduction and to prevent the emergence of new streams of NPLs.
NPL management Creation of a system-wide platform to coordinate NPLs management between banks, backed by a framework for corporate debt restructuring and injection of capital / debt financing. Additionally, setting up an AMC favorable environment may facilitate the sale of NPLs, while attracting private sector investment and benefiting from the integrated management of these assets.
21
3. Private sector turnaround
Banking sector challenges being addressed
CGD
• The 2nd stage of CGD’s recapitalization was concluded in Mar-17, with issuance of €0.5 bn of subordinated bonds and State capital injection of €2.5 bn • The State capital injection may have an impact on the 2017 deficit figures (still to be determined), but it has no additional impact on public debt • NB redeemed all its State-guaranteed debt between Nov-16 and Feb-17 (€3.5bn)
Novo Banco
BCP
BPI
• NB bought back of senior bonds maturing between 2019 and 2052, ensuring a capital increase of €500mn
• A 75% stake in NB was sold to Lone Star, resulting in an immediate capital injection of €750 mn (and an additional €250 mn by the end of 2017). The Resolution Fund will retain 25% of the capital.
• Capital increase of €1.33 bn finalized in Feb-2017, which allowed the reimbursement of the remaining €700 mn of CoCos
• Following the capital increase, Fosun share reached 23.5%
• The removal of the voting rights limit opened the door for a successful public offer by CaixaBank, finalized in Feb-2017, which increased its share to over 84.5%
22
3. Private sector turnaround
De-risking of the banks capital structure More stable funding structure
Higher capital levels in a challenging context
[Loans to Deposits Ratio, %]
[Core tier 1 | Common Equity tier 1, %] 10,3
150.8
9,8
12,6
13,3
12,3
13,3
12,3
14,4
Solvency Ratio 13.2 135.1
12.4
12.3
11.5
11.4
11.3
122.6
111.8 8.7
102.1 96.1
95.5
93.5
7.4 (*) Since Jan-2014 is in effect a new, transitory, regime of own funds adequacy, which takes into account Basel III phase-in arrangements.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017Q2
Source: Banco de Portugal
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017Q2
Source: Banco de Portugal
23
3. Private sector turnaround
Helping improve credit allocation
14%
Real Estate
Construction
Manufacturing
Total
Trade
Jun-17
29%
Dec-16
-20
Jun-16
15%
Dec-15
31%
Jun-15
-15
Dec-14
16%
Jun-14
33%
Dec-13
-10
Jun-13
17%
Dec-12
35%
Jun-12
-5
Dec-11
18%
Jun-11
37%
Dec-10
0
Jun-10
19%
Dec-09
39%
Jul-17
5
Jan-17
20%
Jul-16
41%
Jul-15
10
Jan-16
21%
Jan-15
43%
Jul-14
15
Jan-14
22%
Jul-13
45%
Jan-13
20
Jul-12
23%
Jan-12
47%
Jul-11
25
Jan-11
24%
Jul-10
49%
Jan-10
30
Jul-09
[Exports % of GDP and Loans to exporting firms % of loans to NFC]
Jan-09
[Loans to NFC, annual rate of change, % ]
Jul-08
… supporting exports growth
Jan-08
Redirection towards tradable sectors …
Exports in % of GDP (LHS) Loans to exporting firms (% of total loans to NFC) (RHS)
Source: Banco de Portugal
Source: Banco de Portugal/Statistics Portugal
24
Outline
1.
4.
1. Economic revitalization 2. External rebalancing
3. Private sector turnaround 4. Fiscal stabilization
5. Resilient public debt structure
25
4. Fiscal stabilization
Fiscal discipline has succeeded in stabilizing debt levels, throughout economic and political cycles Strong primary surplus …
… supporting public debt stabilization
[% of GDP]
[EDP gross debt, % of GDP]
6
140 130
4
126.4 2.5 Portugal
2
120
Portugal
110
0
100 90
-2
80
-4
EC projections
EC projections
70 60
-6
50 -8 40 -10 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018f Euro area
Spain
Italy
Portugal
Source: European Commission
30 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018f Euro area
Spain
Italy
Portugal
Source: European Commission
26
4. Fiscal stabilization
The overall deficit reached 2.0% of GDP in 2016 (the first time below 3% since entering the euro area and the lowest since 1974) and is expected to decline to 1.0% in 2018 Significant reduction of expenditure
Structural adjustment
[Total revenue, total spending and overall balance; % GDP]
[% GDP]
0%
52% MF projections
-1.0 -1.4 -2.0
50%
-2%
-1.3 -1.7 -2.0-1.8 -2.3 -2.9 -3.4
48% -4% 46%
-4.8
-6%
-4.4
-5.7 -6.1
44% -7.2
-7.4
-8% 42%
-9.0 -10%
40%
-12%
38%
-11.2 Overall balance
Total revenue
Total expenditure
Overall balance
Source: Statistics Portugal and Ministry of Finance
2010
2011
2012
2013
Structural overall balance 2014
2015
2016
2017p
2018p
Source: Statistics Portugal and Ministry of Finance
27
4. Fiscal stabilization
Fiscal consolidation was achieved through a strong improvement of the primary surplus (reaching a surplus of more than 2.0% of GDP since 2016) and is also supported by declining interest costs General Government Accounts [% GDP] General Government Account (accrual basis) (% GDP) Total revenue Current revenue Current taxes on income and wealth Taxes on production and imports Social contributions Other revenue Capital revenue Total expenditure Current expenditure Social benefits Compensation of employees Interest (EDP) Intermediate consumption Subsidies Other current expenditure Capital expenditure Gross fixed capital formation Other capital expenditure Overall balance Memo items Primary expenditure Primary balance
2010 40.6% 39.4% 8.5% 13.2% 11.9% 5.8% 1.3% 51.8% 44.6% 18.6% 13.7% 2.9% 5.9% 0.7% 2.8% 7.2% 5.3% 1.9% -11.2%
2011 42.6% 41.5% 9.5% 13.9% 12.0% 6.2% 1.1% 50.0% 45.6% 18.9% 12.8% 4.3% 6.0% 0.7% 2.9% 4.4% 3.5% 0.9% -7.4%
2012 42.9% 41.1% 9.0% 13.9% 11.4% 6.9% 1.8% 48.5% 45.3% 19.6% 11.7% 4.9% 5.8% 0.6% 2.7% 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% -5.7%
2013 45.1% 44.0% 11.4% 13.7% 12.0% 6.8% 1.1% 49.9% 46.8% 20.4% 12.5% 4.9% 5.6% 0.6% 2.7% 3.2% 2.3% 0.9% -4.8%
2014 44.6% 43.6% 11.0% 14.2% 11.8% 6.6% 1.0% 51.8% 45.6% 19.7% 11.9% 4.9% 5.7% 0.7% 2.7% 6.2% 1.9% 4.2% -7.2%
48.9% -8.2%
45.7% -3.1%
43.6% -0.8%
45.1% 0.0%
46.9% -2.3%
2016 P 2015 43.8% 43.0% 43.0% 42.6% 10.9% 10.3% 14.5% 14.8% 11.6% 11.7% 5.9% 6.1% 0.4% 0.8% 48.2% 45.0% 43.9% 43.1% 19.3% 19.0% 11.3% 11.3% 4.2% 4.6% 5.6% 5.6% 0.5% 0.6% 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 4.3% 1.5% 2.4% 0.4% 1.9% -2.0% -4.4% 43.6% 0.2%
40.8% 2.2%
2017 E 2018 P 2018 vs 2017 0.1pp 43.4% 43.5% 0.1pp 42.7% 42.8% -0.4pp 9.8% 10.2% 0.1pp 15.0% 15.1% 0.0pp 11.7% 11.7% 0.4pp 6.2% 5.8% 0.0pp 0.7% 0.7% -0.3pp 44.8% 44.5% -0.7pp 42.5% 41.8% -0.1pp 18.7% 18.6% -0.4pp 11.1% 10.8% -0.4pp 3.6% 3.9% 0.0pp 5.6% 5.6% 0.0pp 0.5% 0.5% 0.1pp 2.6% 2.5% 0.4pp 2.8% 2.4% 0.6pp 2.3% 1.7% -0.2pp 0.5% 0.7% 0.4pp -1.0% -1.4% 40.9% 2.5%
40.9% 2.6%
0.1pp 0.1pp
Source: Statistics Portugal and Ministry of Finance
28
4. Fiscal stabilization
Public debt to decline … is supported by strong primary surpluses and decreasing interest costs
Public debt downward trend … [Maastricht debt, % GDP]
Decomposition of public debt dynamics 130
129.0
128.8
[pp GDP]
130.1 126.2
126.2 10.6
120
130.6
10.2
7.4
123.5
9.3 7.2
10.5
6.1
YEAR
2015
2016
2017 P
2018 P
128.8
130.1
126.2
123.5
-1.8
1.4
-3.9
-2.8
Primary balance effect Snowball effect Interest costs Nominal GDP
-0.2 -0.3 4.6 -4.9
-2.2 0.5 4.2 -3.7
-2.5 -1.0 3.9 -4.9
-2.6 -0.8 3.6 -4.4
Other stock-flow adjustments
-1.3
3.1
-0.4
0.6
2015
2016
2017 P
2018 P
Real growth rate (yoy%)
1.8
1.5
2.6
2.2
GDP deflator (yoy%)
2.0
1.4
1.3
1.4
Overall balance (%GDP)
-4.4
-2.0
-1.4
-1.0
0.2 4.6 3.6
2.2 4.2 3.4
2.5 3.9 3.1
2.5 3.6 2.9
Maastricht debt (% GDP) Change (pp GDP)
110
100
115.7
118.4
120.4
121.4
120.8
119.1
117.3
90
Assumptions for public debt dynamics 80 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CentralGov deposits GenGov debt net of CentralGov deposits GenGov gross debt
(*) State-guaranteed debt not considered in the Maastricht debt currently amounts to about 6pp of GDP.
2018
YEAR
Primary balance (%GDP) Interest costs (%GDP) Implicit interest rate (%GGDebt t-1)
Source: Ministry of Finance
29
Outline
1.
5.
1. Economic revitalization 2. External rebalancing
3. Private sector turnaround 4. Fiscal stabilization
5. Resilient public debt structure
30
5. Resilient public debt structure
A significant improvement in the debt structure is a key source of resilience One of the longest average maturities …
… with a declining implicit interest rate
[Years]
[%] 12.1 5.8 9.6 8.2
8.8 8.8 8.2
8.3 7.8
7.3
6.9
6.7 6.0
5.3
5.1
4.5
4.4 4.1
6.5
4.2 3.9
3.5
5.5
3.6
3.7 3.6
3.4 3.2
4.0
2.7
2.8
2015
2016
3.0 2.6
3.0
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Average residual maturity Average residual maturity excl EU-IMF loan Average maturity of MLT debt issuance in each year Source: IGCP
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cost of issuance per year
2014
2017
Cost of debt outstanding
Source: IGCP
31
5. Resilient public debt structure
Prudent and stable funding plan State’s borrowing needs and sources 2016-2021 [EUR billion; as of 6 December, 2017] State borrowing requirements Net financing needs Overall deficit * Other net acquisitions of financial assets ** MLT Redemptions Tbonds (PGB + MTN) FRN/OTRV IMF (executed) IMF (to be executed) p.m. IMF (original maturity of outstanding loan) State financing sources Use of deposits Financing in the year Executed Tbonds (PGB + MTN) FRN/OTRV Retail debt (net) Tbills (net) Other flows (net) *** To be executed Tbonds (PGB + MTN) Retail debt (net) Tbills (net) Other flows (net) *** State Treasury cash position at year-end ****
2016 22.5 8.3 6.2 2.1 14.2 9.7
2017 P 27.2 9.4 4.5 4.9 17.9 7.8
4.5
9.0 1.0 0.0 27.2 2.4 24.9 23.9 15.1 3.5 2.7 0.3 2.3 0.9
22.5 -3.6 26.1 26.1 17.4 3.5 3.5 0.1 1.7
10.2
2018 P 18.6 11.0 5.6 5.4 7.6 6.7 0.8 0.0 18.6 1.1 17.5
0.1
17.5 15.0 1.8
0.9 7.8
0.7 6.8
2019 P 14.4 5.4 1.6 3.8 9.0 9.0
2020 P 13.1 3.1 0.5 2.5 10.0 10.0
2021 P 20.4 1.4 -1.5 2.8 19.0 13.7 3.5
0.0 14.4 0.3 14.1
0.0 13.1 -3.5 16.6
1.8 3.7 20.4 6.0 14.4
14.1
16.6
14.4
6.5
10.0
4.0
* State sub-sector cash deficit in 2016-18. Projection for GG deficit (excl SS) in 2019-21 (Stability Program, Apr 2017). ** Includes refinancing of other public entities (namely SOEs), as well as the redemption of CoCos, the direct Source: IGCP and Ministry of Finance capitalization of CGD, and the credit line to the Single Resolution Board. *** Includes centralization of funds of other public entities in the Single Treasury Account. 32 **** Excluding cash-collateral.
5. Resilient public debt structure
Regular issuance of MLT debt through different channels and across the curve Auctions regaining the main role in the annual funding plan
Supporting liquidity in different points of the curve
[MLT debt issuance per method of issuance; EUR billion]
[MLT debt issuance per bucket; EUR billion]
24
24
23
11%
22 20
23
7%
22
21
17%
20
19%
16% 17% 23% 9%
36%
5%
14% 48%
12 77%
55%
12% 47%
12% 2010
41% 2011
Syndications
46% 25%
45%
8
4 100% 2012
Auctions
55%
48%
25%
45%
Exchanges
2015
MTN Issuance
53%
15%
2016 OTRV
26%
42% 35%
25%
2014
10%
4 21% 15%
2013
8%
8 8% 41%
47%
45%
46%
12
8%
20%
21 2%
17%
38%
8%
8%
2017 Jan-Dec 2017 MLT Issuance
Source: IGCP
2010
51%
2011
100% 2012 =13 Source: IGCP
33
5. Resilient public debt structure
The diversification of investors ensures a stable base of debt holders (1/2) Progressively regaining traditional investors [Distribution by geography and investor type of 10-year syndications from 2010 to 2017]
Distribution by Geography
Distribution by Investor Type
Asia France
2017 2013
2010
Germany/Austria/Switzerland Nordics
Asset Managers 2010
Banks Official Institutions
North America
Hedge Funds Other Other EU
2013 2017
Insurance / Pension Funds Others
Portugal
Spain UK
Source: IGCP
34
5. Resilient public debt structure
The diversification of investors ensures a stable base of debt holders (2/2) More diversified public debt composition
Non-domestic holdings in line with EU peers
[EUR billion and % of total State debt]
[% of total State debt securities]
240 194
200
133 120
13% 15%
13%
7% 7%
13%
25%
32%
35%
36% 11%
85
75
65
10%
11%
118
242
32%
152 21%
226
30%
175
160
80
204
217
236
9% 6%
6%
8%
9%
9%
7%
6%
7%
55
7%
11%
45 40
69%
69%
70%
59%
48%
45%
43%
46%
47%
48%
35 0
Portugal Source: IGCP
Spain
Dec-16
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Other MLT Other ST EU-IMF TOTAL
Jun-10
PGB Tbills Retail Other non-tradable
25
Dec-09
Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Oct 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Italy Source: IGCP
35
5. Resilient public debt structure
Since April 2016, ECB purchases of PGBs have been lower than what would be executed from applying the capital key ECB PGB purchases under PSPP
PSPP purchases (cumulative diff vs capital key)
[EUR billion]
[EUR billion]
2.0
14 12
1.5
10 8
1.0
France
Germany
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Ireland
Slovenia
Slovakia
6 4
EUR billion
0.5
0.0
2 0
-2 -4
-0.5
-6 -8 -10
-1.0
-12 -14
-1.5
PSPP actual purchases
PSPP purchases with capital key
difference Source: ECB
Source: ECB
36
5. Resilient public debt structure
Liability management operations have smoothed the redemption profile 76% of the IMF loan has been fully repaid
Maturity profile spread over a long time span
[Repurchases of IMF loan]
[Redemption calendar MLT debt; Dec-17 + rollover EFSM; EUR billion]
Date
SDR million
EUR million
2015
6,579
8,448
2016
3,560
4,496
2017
7,394
9,012
TOTAL
17,534
21,956
EFSF EFSM
21
EFSM (final maturity to be confirmed) IMF
18
Other medium- and long-term debt 15
IGCP is actively buying back off-the-run PGBs [PGB buybacks, Jan-Dec 2017]
12
Security
Outright buyback (EUR million)
Exchange (EUR million)
OT Oct 2017
361
-
OT Jun 2018
1,091
427
OT Jun 2019
101
1,117
OT Jun 2020
-
1,231
OT Oct 2022
-
- 2,508
OT Apr 2027
-
-324
TOTAL
1,554
-
Source: IGCP
24
9
6
3
0 2017
2021
2025
2029
2033
2037
2041
2045 Source: IGCP
(*) Exact final maturity date of each EFSM individual loan will be defined when the original loans are rolled over (IGCP simulation in orange), but it is not expected that Portugal will have to refinance any of its EFSM loans before 2026.
37
Appendix
A. Macroeconomic indicators B. Structural reforms C. Fiscal indicators D. Debt management indicators
38
A. Macroeconomic indicators
Economic structure better adapted for sustainable recovery cycle, as exports now weigh 40% of GDP GDP composition (current prices)
GVA composition (current prices)
[% of GDP]
[% of GVA] Other services
19 18
24
29
21
24
21
19
19
18
18
16
15
15
15
63
64
29
21
66
66
66
66
General government consumption
14
27
7
30
38
40
41
40
8
3
1995
2000
-36
2005
-37
2010
-38
2012
-40
2014
-40
2015
-39
2016
Source: Statistics Portugal
8
8
20
6 3
4 5
15
14
14
8 3
19
17
18
7 3
-39
Financial, insurance and real estate
Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles; accommodation and food service Construction
19 18
7
17
8
Private consumption
Exports
-33
30
Transportation and storage; information and communication 15
19
28
32
13
Gross fixed capital formation
27
31
Imports
66 65
27
18
5
4
3
2
2
1995
2000
2005
2010
2016
Energy, water supply and sewerage Industry
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Source: Eurostat
39
A. Macroeconomic indicators
Upward trend in soft and hard data economic indicators Coincident indicators and real GDP
Retail sales and Industrial production
[yoy %]
[3 month average, YoY%]
4
10%
2 5%
0 0% -2 -5% -4
-6
Activity Coincident Indicator (3m MA)
-10% Industrial Production
Private Consumption Coincident Indicator (3m MA) -8
GDP (yoy %)
-15%
Source: Banco de Portugal, Statistics Portugal
Retail Sales
Source: Statistics Portugal
40
A. Macroeconomic indicators
In 2017, investment main objectives are extension of production capacity and replacement, mainly directed to manufacturing Investment objectives in 2017
Investment objectives by economic sector in 2017
[Investment distribution by objectives, % of total]
[Investment distribution by NACE sections, %]
38.2%
28.7% 36.3%
13.8%
12.8% 10.6% 9.3%
13.4% 12.0%
7.6% 5.3% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6%
Extension of production capacity
Replacement
To stream line of production
1.8%
1.1% 0.9%
Other investment objectives
Source: Statistics Portugal
Source: Statistics Portugal
41
A. Macroeconomic indicators
Inflation in Portugal is in line with other European countries, despite some additional volatility in recent figures HICP
Core HICP
[Year-on-year growth, %]
[Year-on-year growth; %] 3
5 4
2 3 1
2 1
0
0 -1 -1 -2 Diff
Euro area (19 countries)
Portugal
-2 Diff
-3 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17
Source: Eurostat
-3 Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Euro area (19 countries)
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Portugal
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Source: Eurostat
42
A. Macroeconomic indicators
Currently most sectors are contributing positively to HICP inflation in Portugal, in particular restaurants and hotels, and transport and communication Portugal
Euro Area
[Contributions to yoy HICP growth, %]
[Contributions to yoy HICP growth, %]
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1 Oct-11
Jul-12
Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14
Jul-15
Apr-16 Jan-17 Oct-17
Others Restaurants and hotels Transport and communications Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Food, beverages, tobacco and narcotics HICP
Source: Eurostat
-1 Oct-11
Jul-12
Apr-13
Jan-14
Oct-14
Jul-15
Apr-16
Jan-17
Oct-17
Others Restaurants and hotels Transport and communications Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Food, beverages, tobacco and narcotics HICP Source: Eurostat
43
A. Macroeconomic indicators
Well diversified exports distribution, with limited sectoral or geographical concentration Portuguese goods exports by major destination and sector [% total exports by destination and sector; YTD Jul 2017]
Others
WORLD
Elec. and Mec. Machinery
2.15
1.55
3.57
1.50
0.51
0.28
0.42
0.32
0.77
0.14
4.29
15.5
Vehicles and parts, Aircraft
2.98
2.06
2.07
1.10
0.21
0.14
0.35
0.17
0.06
0.48
1.83
11.4
Textile Products
3.31
1.27
0.87
0.80
0.53
0.37
0.45
0.19
0.09
0.07
1.85
9.8
Plastics and Rubber
2.34
0.93
0.99
0.39
0.29
0.47
0.27
0.23
0.20
0.05
1.58
7.7
Base Metals
2.72
1.27
0.56
0.54
0.36
0.19
0.09
0.15
0.28
0.06
1.65
7.9
Mineral products
1.88
0.28
0.05
0.13
1.20
0.62
0.29
0.28
0.05
0.19
3.47
8.4
Prep. Food, Beverages and Tobaco
1.67
0.82
0.20
0.38
0.22
0.18
0.27
0.15
0.33
0.15
1.31
5.7
Chemicals (incl. Pharma.)
1.13
0.28
0.61
0.41
0.50
0.18
0.17
0.32
0.40
0.02
1.21
5.2
Pulp of Wood and Paper
1.09
0.46
0.44
0.20
0.20
0.33
0.25
0.06
0.10
0.20
1.22
4.6
Footware
0.37
0.85
0.73
0.22
0.14
0.55
0.11
0.10
0.04
0.02
0.78
3.9
Others
5.74
3.00
1.22
1.03
1.06
0.70
0.96
0.45
0.90
0.15
4.63
19.8
TOTAL
25.4
12.8
11.3
6.7
5.2
4.0
3.6
2.4
3.2
1.5
23.8
100
Source: Statistics Portugal
44
A. Macroeconomic indicators
Exports growth based on geographical and sectoral contributors Major sector and country contributions [%, YTD Jul 2017]
Others
WORLD
YoY
Textile Products
0.06
0.08
-0.01
0.04
0.07
0.01
0.00
0.04
0.16
0.45
4
Plastics and Rubber
0.23
0.07
0.03
0.09
0.07
-0.02
0.00
0.09
0.27
0.82
11
Manufactured Products
0.03
0.11
0.04
-0.07
0.03
0.01
-0.01
0.07
0.09
0.31
8
Vegetable Products
0.13
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.17
0.45
22
Footware
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
0.06
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.02
0.13
0.18
4
Optical / medical / precision instr.
0.01
-0.02
0.03
0.18
0.10
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.17
0.49
30
Animal Products
0.16
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.05
0.32
0.55
21
Vehicles and parts, Aircraft
0.21
0.30
-0.04
-0.37
0.12
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.72
6
Prep. Food, Beverages and Tobaco
-0.06
0.00
-0.05
0.02
0.03
0.05
0.00
0.09
0.21
0.29
5
Base Metals
0.57
0.16
0.11
0.05
0.21
0.02
-0.25
0.13
0.24
1.24
17
Mineral products
0.37
-0.02
0.12
0.01
0.32
-0.03
-0.12
0.01
1.83
2.50
36
Others
0.14
0.32
-0.04
0.40
0.10
0.09
-0.10
0.60
1.64
3.13
TOTAL
1.85
1.05
0.17
0.46
1.04
0.43
-0.47
1.17
5.44
YoY
7
8
2
4
22
34
-47
48
11.14 Source: Statistics Portugal
45
A. Macroeconomic indicators
Services exports are benefiting from a strong performance of the tourism sector Decomposition of services exports
Nights spent in hotel establishments
[Contributions to yoy Services exports growth, %]
[yoy %]
19.8
20
12 15.7
15
8
12.1
6
10.2 10
9.6
5.9 4.4
4.6 2.7
6.5 5.8
5.8
5.5
4
7.5
6.5 5
10.4
10
4.8
2.6
2
0.6
0
4.0
-2
0
-1.3
-4 -6
-5
-7.1
-8 -8.5
-10
Transportation
Tourism
-10
Other
Services
Source: Banco de Portugal
Residents
Non Residents
Total Source: Statistics Portugal
46
Appendix
A. Macroeconomic indicators B. Structural reforms C. Fiscal indicators D. Debt management indicators
47
B. Structural reforms
Labor market reforms Unemployment Benefits
Capped at: 26 months (38 months before) 2.5x IAS (3xIAS before) with 10% reduction after 6 months Min. contribution period 12 months (15 before) Extension to self employed (1)
Severance Payment
12 days/year for new contracts; 18 days/year (old contracts first 3 years) (30/36 days before) Cap: 12 months
Reduce risk of long term unemployment Encourage earlier return to labor market Reduce contribution period that gives access unemployment insurance
(1)
Working time Arrangements
Introduction of individual bank of hours, capped at 150 hours (vs. 200 before);
Collective bank of hours Vacations up to 22 (vs 25 days )
Increase flexibility in production cycle; Improve efficiency and eliminate labor market duality
Improve productivity; Improve production capacity adjustment to peak periods without increasing personnel costs
Unemployment benefit has been extended to certain self employed categories (+80% of wage needs to come from one employer )
48
B. Structural reforms
Hiring and firing is now easier and less costly Hiring and firing practices
Redundancy costs
[Index scale from 1 to7 (best)]
[Cost of advance notice requirements, severance payments, and penalties due when terminating a redundant worker, expressed in weekly wages]
5
100
90 80 4 70 60 3
50 40 30
2 20 10 1
0 ITA
FRA
ESP
PRT 2015
DEU
GRC
IRL
2008 Source: World Economic Forum
ITA
FRA
IRL
GRC 2015
PRT
ESP
DEU
2008 Source: World Economic Forum
49
B. Structural reforms
Judicial system reforms Effectiveness of labor, civil, commercial and tax courts
Streamline and speed up court proceedings; Reduce and expedite the resolution of backlog cases;
Alternative dispute resolution
Create and strengthen alternative dispute resolution means to facilitate out-of-court mechanisms.
Improve enforcement procedures.
Restructuring of the court system with the adoption of new court management models (New Judicial Map);
New Tax Arbitration Law;
New Code of Civil Procedure;
Strengthened Peaces of Justice regime;
Creation of specialized courts (new Competition Court and Intellectual Property Court);
Out-of-court debt restructuring framework (SIREVE).
50
B. Structural reforms
Since 2012, significant improvements were made both in the clearance rate and in the disposition time Clearance Rate
Disposition Time (days)
[Clearance Rate (%) = Resolved cases/ Incoming cases × 100]
Disposition Time = Pending cases/Resolved cases × 365] 1100
130%
124% 1000 120% 900 110%
849 800
100%
97%
700
710
90% 600
80%
500
400
70% 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Source: DGPJ
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Source: DGPJ
51
B. Structural reforms
Public Administration reforms Portugal was one of the first EA countries to translate the “Fiscal Compact” rules to its legal framework
New Budgetary Framework Law:
New Commitments’ Control Law:
• Fiscal compact rules introduced in 2013 and new Law approved in 2015 (both approved by a qualified majority in Parliament);
• Ability of public entities in assuming commitments is constrained to the quarterly available funds;
• Introduction of a program-based budgeting.
• Establish strong incentives for suppliers to closely watch infringements.
New Public Finance Council: • Contribute to bring transparency and accountability on fiscal policy; • Review government revenue projections and multi-annual fiscal plans.
Restructuring State Owned Enterprises: • Commercial SOEs reached operational balance in 2012, through downsizing, cuts in operational costs, and investment restrictions; • Most subsidiaries and shareholdings in noncore activities will be eliminated by 2014; • New governance model (Ministry of Finance has stronger power) and tighter reporting framework.
52
B. Structural reforms
The number of civil servants declined by about 9% since Dec-11, putting a lid on current expenditure Number of civil servants [thousands] Regional and Local Government
728
551
700
530
Social Security Fund
675
656
510
497
659
Central Government
General Government
664
670
668
661
507
511
509
502
502
13
12
12
11
10
10
10
10
10
164
158
154
149
147
147
148
149
149
Source: DGAEP
53
B. Structural reforms
Social security reforms 2007: new Social Security Framework Law (Social Security Reform 2007 – Law no. 4 -2007)
• Introduction of new rules for the calculation of the pensions, considering the entire career and a sustainability factor (the “life expectancy coefficient”); • Further reduction of the benefits in relation to earlier retirement.
2007: Convergence between CGA and GSSS (Law no. 52/2007 of 31 August)
• Transposition of Social Security reform measures to CGA from 2008 on, with a transitory period until 2015.
2014: new rules were introduced (Decret-Law no. 167-E/2013 and ministerial directive no. 378-G/2013 of 31 December)
• 2014: Normal retirement age increased from 65 to 66 years old (sustainability factor update); • Following years: normal age of entitlement to old-age pension indexed to the average life expectancy (updated in a 2/3 proportion of the change of the average life expectancy observed between the 2nd and 3rd years preceding the pension entitlement ).
54
Appendix
A. Macroeconomic indicators B. Structural reforms C. Fiscal indicators D. Debt management indicators
55
C. Fiscal indicators
The overall balance of the GG on a cash basis stood at EUR -1,838 million between JanOct 2017, EUR 2,664 million above the same period in 2016 General Government (GG) balance [EUR million; yoy change] 2,000
10,000
1,022 132
0
-358
625 -19
-649 -2,000
-569
-339
-1,617
-698
8,000 -1,838
-2,034
6,000
-1,931 -2,811
-3,075 -3,763 -2,860
-4,000
-3,934 -4,916 -6,000
1,901
2,290
-4,182
-4,503
4,000
2,664 -4,763 2,000
1,153 290
-8,000
0 -397
-151
Jan
Feb
-314
-359
-264
Apr
May
Jun
-581
-10,000
-2,000 Mar
yoy change (RHS)
Jul
Aug
2017
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Target
2016
56
C. Fiscal indicators
Jan-Oct 2017 budget execution (on cash basis) General Government total revenue on cash basis
General Government total expenditure on cash basis
[%, pp]
[%, pp]
4.2 3.9
Total revenues (yoy, %)
Main contributions (p.p.) 1.4
Direct taxes
0.0 0.2
Employees
1.6
Current transfers
- 0.9 0.7
0.7
0.2
Interest and other charges
- 0.1
0.7
Other current revenue
Capital revenue
4.4
Main contributions (p.p.)
0.5
Indirect taxes
SS contributions
0.0
Total expenditures (yoy, %)
Other current expenditure
0.1 0.1
0.4 1.8
2.0
Capital expenditures
0.4 0.9
Execution in Jan-Oct 2017
2017 Budget target
0.3 1.7
Source: Ministry of Finance
57
Appendix
A. Macroeconomic indicators B. Structural reforms C. Fiscal indicators D. Debt management indicators
58
D. Debt management indicators
Average implicit interest rate anchored in historically low level, given the relatively long average maturity Implicit interest rate on State direct debt
Average maturity around 8 years
[%; Interest costs in t / Average debt stock at the end of t-1 and t]
[State direct debt after swaps; Aug-2017]
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
PGB
4,4%
4,6%
4,7%
4,4%
4,0%
Tbills
4,1%
2,4%
1,2%
0,2%
0,0%
Retail debt
3,1%
3,4%
3,5%
3,6%
3,3%
EU/IMF
3,1%
2,8%
3,0%
2,9%
2,8%
Total
3,9%
3,6%
3,6%
3,4%
3,2% Source: IGCP
Outstanding (EUR bn)
Current average residual maturity (years)
Final average residual maturity (years)
EU-IMF
61.8
11.3
13.0
Other debt
182.9
6.3
6.3
Total
244.7
7.6
8.0
EU/IMF loans with average cost of around 2.5% [Estimates; Aug-2017] Entity
Amount disbursed (EUR bn)
Estimated Final average maturity from all in cost disbursement date (years)
EFSM
24.1
2.7%
19.5
EFSF
26.0
1.9%
20.8
IMF
26.3
4.2%
5.9
Total EU-IMF
76.5
2.5%
15.3 Source: IGCP
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D. Debt management indicators
Over-the-counter and platforms average daily turnover improved since 2013 Average daily turnover on PGBs [EUR million] 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Over-the-counter OT
Platforms OT
OT 12M Moving Average Source: IGCP, HRF reports by Primary Dealers
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Disclaimer The information and opinions contained in this presentation have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this document are published for the assistance of recipients, but is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by a recipient and, therefore, does not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. IGCP does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its contents.
Web site: www.igcp.pt Bloomberg pages: IGCP Reuters pages: IGCP01
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