3 de jul de 2017 - government Page 8. 5. Rate the government as excellent or good. Approve of the President´s way of gov...
CNI Indicators • ISSN 2317-7012 • Year 7 • Number 2 • July 2017
CNI-Ibope survey
GOVERNMENT EVALUATION July / 2017
CNI-Ibope survey
GOVERNMENT EVALUATION July / 2017
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CNI Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC
CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA P474g National Confederation of Industry CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation - (July 2017). – Brasília: CNI, 2017. 10 p. ISBN 2317-7012
1. Evaluation of the government. 2. Government of Brazil. 3. Survey research
CDU: 354 (049.5)
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CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation ISSN 2317-7012 • Year 7 • Number 2 • July 2017
Temer’s popularity hits record low President Temer’s approval ratings dropped sharply to an all-time low between March and July 2017. The percentage of respondents who rate the government as excellent or good edged down from 10% in March to 5% in July, while the figure for those rating the Temer administration as bad or terrible rose from 55% to 70%. The percentage of those who have confidence in President Temer and who approve of his way of governing edged down respectively from 17% to 10% and from 20% to 11%.
The decline in Temer government’s approval ratings has been observed across the nine specific areas of activity assessed in the survey. The worst rated areas are taxes, with 87% of disapproval, and health, with 85%. The outlook for the remainder of the Temer administration is also bleak. Sixtyfive percent of respondents believe the rest of the Temer administration will be bad or terrible, with only 9% believing it will be excellent or good.
President Michel Temer’s Popularity Percentage of responses (%)
35
31 28
30 25
27
26
26
20 23
20 15 10
13
14
17
11
10
10
13
5
5 Jun/16
Sep/16
Dec/16
Mar/17
Jul/17
Rate the government as excellent or good Approve of the President´s way of governing
Have confidence in the President
Summary
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Evaluation of the government Page 6
•
Approval of the government by area Page 7
•
Perception of news items about the government Page 8
5
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Evaluation of the government: from José Sarney to Michel Temer Page 9
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Results table Page 10
CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation ISSN 2317-7012 • Year 7 • Number 2 • July 2017
GOVERNMENT EVALUATION
Highlights by respondent profile
Evaluation of the Michel Temer administration Percentage of responses (%)
80
70 55
60
46 39
39
40
35 36
20
13
34 14
13
12
31 21
13 6
10 4
5 3
0 Jun/16
Sep/16
Excellent/Good
Dec/16
Fair
Mar/17
Bad/Terrible
Jul/17
Doesn´t know/ Didn´t answer
Percentage of responses (%)
83 73 64
60
53
55
31
28
30
26 20
16
17
Jun/16
Sep/16
10
7
Dec/16
Disapproves
Approves
11 5
0 Mar/17
Jul/17
Doesn´t know/Didn´t answer
Confidence in President Michel Temer Percentage of responses (%)
100
87
80
66
68
27
26
72
79
60 40 20
7
6
23
17
5
3
Dec/16
Mar/17
10 3
0 Jun/16
Sep/16
Has confidence in
Doesn´t have confidence in
Jul/17
Doesn´t know/ Didn´t answer
6
The percentage of those who rate the Temer government as bad or terrible in the North and Midwest regions grew by 23 percentage points, while the figure for the country as a whole grew by 15 percentage points. These regions also reported the highest increase in the disapproval ratings of the president’s way of governing and the highest drop in confidence. The Northeast region is still the one with the highest percentage of residents who rate the government as bad or terrible.
Capital cities residents give the president worse ratings than noncapital cities residents
Approval of the way of governing 90
North and Midwest regions see highest decline in popularity
In non-capital cities, the percentage of residents rating the government as bad or terrible stood at 69%, down by six percentage points from the figure recorded in capitals. While 86% of capital residents disapprove of the president’s way of governing, the percentage for non-capitals residents goes down to 82%. In the Brazilian capitals, 7% have confidence in the president, compared to 11% among residents in non-capital cities.
Approval ratings are higher among respondents whose household income is more than five times the minimum wage Twenty-two percent of respondents earning more than five minimum wages approve of President Temer’s way of governing, more than twice the figure for the total sample. With regard to the government’s performance, the percentage of those who rate it as bad or terrible reached 66% among respondents with a household income of more than five times the minimum wage and rose to 72% among those with a household income of up to two minimum wages.
Perspectives for the remainder of the Temer administration
Comparison with the Dilma administration Percentage of responses (%)
Percentage of responses (%)
For 52% of respondents, the Temer administration is worse than Dilma’s. Only 11% of respondents believe the Temer administration is better.
The outlook for the rest of the Temer government is also bleak: the percentage of those who believe that the remainder of the Temer government will be bad or terrible rose from 52% in March to 65% in July.
70
70
60
60
50
44
40 30 20
25 23
10 0
42
38 31
Sep/16
40 30
18
3
20
11 2
3
Dec/16
Mar/17
52
50
35
38
21
8 Jun/16
41 34
24 7
52
65
10
38 30
35 32 24
32
9
8
Jun/16
28
18
24
0
Jul/17
43
Sep/16
22
14
7
6
Dec/16
Mar/17
9 5 Jul/17
Better
The same
Excellent/Good
Fair
Worse
Doesn´t know/Didn´t answer
Bad/Terrible
Doesn´t know/Didn´t answer
Approval of the government by area The government’s approval ratings by area have worsened across all nine areas under analysis. With 87%, tax actions and policies received the worst disapproval ratings. It is worth noting that the survey was conducted before the increase in the PIS/COFINS tax rates levied on fuels. Health
received an 85% disapproval rating and a 13% approval rating, while interest rates have an 84% disapproval rating and an 11% approval rating. ‘Public safety’ and ‘fight against unemployment’ also posted disapproval ratings in excess of 80%.
Evaluation of the Temer administration by area Percentage of responses (%) in July 2017
Education
22
Environment
21
Fighting inflation
18
Fighting hunger and poverty
17
3
75 70
10
77
5 4
80
Fighting unemployment
15
84
2
Public security
14
84
3
Health care
13
Interest rates
85 84
11
Taxes
6
87
9
0
1
20
40
Approves
7
Disapproves
4
60
80
Doesn´t know/Didn´t answer
100
CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation ISSN 2317-7012 • Year 7 • Number 2 • July 2017
Perception of news items about the government News items recalled by the population Percentage of respondents who mentioned the news item or a similar story (%) Government corruption (unspecified)
16
Labor reform
10
Lava Jato Operation
9
Attorney General Rodrigo Janot files passive corruption charges against President Michel Temer
8
Welfare reform
4
Unemployment
3
Motion to impeach President Temer
3
Political crisis in the country (unspecified)
2
Demonstrations in Brazil (unspecified)
2
Rodrigo da Rocha Loures, a former adviser to Temer, is arrested on suspicion of accepting bribes intended for the President of the Republic
2
Financial crisis in Brazilian states
2
Strikes and stoppages across Brazil (unspecified)
1
Former President Lula is found guilty in the Lava Jato case
1
Funding released for lawmakers to vote in favor of Temer
1
The corruption charges against President Temer are rejected by the Constitution and Justice Committee
1
News items mentioned by less than 0.5% of respondents
5
None
10
Doesn’t know / Didn’t answer
36
For 64% of respondents, the recent news items are more unfavorable to the government. In March’s survey, this figure stood at 54%. The percentage of those who consider the news items to be more favorable to the government remained unchanged at 12%, while the figure for those who consider them to be neither favorable nor unfavorable fell from 21% to 13%. Once again, news reports about corruption are uppermost in the population’s memory. Among the respondents, 33% mentioned at least one news item on this subject (each respondent could mention up to two news items). Considering the subject of corruption, news items about unspecified government corruption, the Lava Jato (Car Wash) operation, and the passive corruptions charges filed by Attorney General Rodrigo Janot against President Michel Temer stood out with 16%, 9% and 8% of responses, respectively. The second most recalled group of news items were those concerned with the reforms, particularly the labor reform (10%) and the welfare reform (4%).
Perception of news about the government Percentage of responses (%) in July 2017
12 13 64
More favorable Neither favorable nor unfavorable More unfavorable
8
Evaluation of the government: from José Sarney to Michel Temer
Percentage of respondents who consider the government excellent or good (%)
Sarney
100
Collor
Itamar
Lula
Fernando Henrique 1
2
1
Temer
Dilma 2
1
2
80
60
40
20
0 Mar 1986
Feb 1990
Nov 1992
Mar 1995
Mar 1999
Mar 2003
Mar 2007
Mar 2011
Mar 2015
Jul 2017
Percentage of respondents who consider the government bad or terrible (%) 100
Sarney
Collor
Itamar
Lula
Fernando Henrique 1
2
1
Temer
Dilma 2
1
2
80
60
40
20
0 Mar 1986
Feb 1990
Nov 1992
Mar 1995
Mar 1999
Mar 2003
9
Mar 2007
Mar 2011
Mar 2015
Jul 2017
CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation ISSN 2317-7012 • Year 7 • Number 2 • July 2017
RESULTS TABLE Percentage of responses (%)
Jul/17
Percentage of responses (%)
Evaluation of the government
Jul/17
The environment
Excellent / Good
5
Approves
21
Fair
21
Disapproves
70
Bad / Terrible
70
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
10
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
3
Health care
Perspectives for the remainder of the Temer administration
Approves
13
Excellent / Good
9
Disapproves
85
Fair
22
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
1
Bad / Terrible
65
Education
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
5
Approves
22
Disapproves
75 3
Approval of the president’s way of governing Approves
11
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
Disapproves
83
Perception of news items about the government
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
5
More favorable
12
Neither favorable nor unfavorable
13
Confidence in the president Have confidence
10
More unfavorable
64
No confidence
87
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
11
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
3
Comparison with Dilma Rousseff
Approval of the government by performance area
Better
11
Interest rates
The same
35
Approves
11
Worse
52
Disapproves
84
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
2
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
6
The sum of the percentages may not be equal to 100 due to rounding errors.
Fighting unemployment Approves
15
Disapproves
84
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
2
Public security Approves
14
Disapproves
84
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
3
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,000 interviews in 125 municipalities. Survey period: July 13-16, 2017. The estimated margin of error is 2 percentage points above or below the results found in the sample. The confidence level is 95%.
Fighting inflation Approves
18
Disapproves
77
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
5
Fighting hunger and poverty Approves
17
Disapproves
80
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
4
i
Taxes Approves
9
Disapproves
87
Doesn’t know/Didn’t answer
4
10
Learn more For more information on the survey, including previous editions, methodology, historical series and highlights by respondent profile, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_pesqcniibope
CNI Policy and Strategy Directorate – DIRPE
José Augusto Coelho Fernandes Director for Policy and Strategy Research and Competitiveness Unit – GPC
Renato da Fonseca Executive Manager for Research and Competitiveness Edson Velloso Technical Team Carla Regina P. Gadêlha Editorial production CORPORATE SERVICES DIRECTORATE – DSC Administration, Documentation and Information Department – ADINF
Maurício Vasconcelos de Carvalho Executive Manager for Administration, Documentation and Information Unit of Documentation and Information – GEDIN
Alberto Nemoto Yamaguti Normalization
IBOPE Inteligência Elaboration of the survey
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